In Short

Why this Matters

NDC announcements lay bare the scale of the work to be done at COP30

• Closing the ambition gap between country pledges and real world needs will be an extremely challenging task. COP hosts Brazil were pleased with the number of countries that have come forward. While they consider over 100 NDCs to “be in the bag”, only 51 of these have been formally submitted to the UN, up from 35 as of our latest in depth NDC briefing. Only six G20 countries have submitted (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, UK). COP31 hopeful Türkiye’s NDC is missing in action. Paradoxically, while the overall ambition is low, these represent much higher quality NDCs than previously. Of those who have submitted:

  • 92% have a policy commitment to reach at least one of the GST energy outcomes (tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, fossil fuel phaseout).

  • Renewable energy has become central, with around 70% of submitted NDCs including improved or already high renewable share. 78% either quantify their 2035 renewable energy goal, or already have >90% RE penetration in their power mix.

  • 78% of countries either have no coal in their energy mix, or reference intentions to phase down unabated coal power. But no country has provided a quantified target for ending oil and gas production; very few reference fossil fuel subsidy or subsidy reform.

    
    

• All eyes were on China. While President Xi Jinping’s decision to personally announce the NDC signalled its importance, the substance was disappointing. This is the first time China has offered a fixed emissions reduction target, but that target is extremely low, at 7% to 10% of  peak levels, without a defined base year, while “striving to do better”. China always has and surely will “do better”, but their NDC target falls below their current trajectory (9–12%), and is not aligned with either their economic decarbonisation potential, nor their own 2060 carbon neutrality goal. It is crucial that their forthcoming Five-Year Plan improves upon these conservative targets and doesn’t hide behind them. Detailed analysis of China’s submission can be found here.​​

  
  

• Competing narratives are emerging on where the EU now finds itself, with Commissioners and country leaders emphasising its continued intention to lead on climate  but an emerging recognition that its reputation – and clout – have been damaged. While the EU arrived in force, it presented only a statement of intent, promising a target of 66–72% in an NDC to be submitted “before COP30”, and, in parallel, a 2040 reduction target of 90% on the way to climate neutrality by 2050. The EU needs to agree its 2040 target to stop the current political turbulence and have a chance of re-seizing the narrative.

  
  

• Canada’s Mark Carney, former UN Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, dropped out of the summit at the last minute, without explanation, squandering a key leadership opportunity. Canada’s NDC is the least ambitious of the G7 NDCs submitted so far, and their performance on reducing emissions is the worst of the group.

  
  

• What next? In positive news, The EU and China held an immediate follow up bilateral, with the COP presidency also holding follow-up consultations. With Lula emphasising that NDCs are a legal obligation, which are set to be a focus of the pre-COP Leaders Summit, it is clear that the pressure is on. Announcements from South Africa, India, Mexico, Türkiye, and Indonesia will be key to watch in the coming weeks.

There is growing political momentum behind the just and equitable energy transition

• Despite increasing geopolitical fragmentation, the emerging multilateral coordination on energy transition is a key positive signal. In the days before UNGA, twenty leaders from governments and energy institutions, including the EU, UK, Canada, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Barbados, the DRC, and Uruguay sent a joint letter committing to "all hands on deck”.

  
  

• The Global Renewables Summit concluded with a major focus on investment in grid infrastructure and energy storage as a pathway to unlocking the next frontier of the clean energy transition. And the Global Grid Catalyst, launched as part of the UN Energy Transition Solutions Dialogue aims to take an initial commitment of $50M of philanthropic funding and to mobilise $200m annually in order to modernise grids to make energy “abundant, clean, affordable and secure”, creating between $1.1 and $3.2 trillion dollars of economic value through 2050, especially in the Global South.

  
  

• There was also a subtle, but significant, shift of tone in discussions surrounding reserves. Kenya, for example, did an excellent job at the high-level summit in laying out the contradiction between recognising the value of fossil reserves but not renewable potential, with President Ruto noting that Kenya has the solutions on emissions reductions at scale, but “endless debate continues on fossil fuels reserves, while our solar, wind, clean reserves are underutilised”.

  
  

• What next? Ideally, the leaders’ joint letter, together with climate week’s focus on renewables, could  serve as the beginning of a diplomatic push to get more leaders, including from India, Indonesia, and China, to send a unified, high-level message of unity on the transition, together with concrete ideas for moving forward, in the run-up to COP30. Currently there is too little detail on how finance will be mobilised to support it, and this will be key in closing the ambition gap.

Adaptation and resilience emerged as key topics for the first time

Adaptation moved up the political agenda and was framed as central to resilience and justice, but without significant new public finance commitments, momentum risks outpacing delivery.

• Adaptation rose higher on the agenda than in previous UNGA sessions, including via the leaders’ Dialogue on Global Climate Adaptation Action sideline event, with the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) receiving strong political traction. Leaders from LDCs and SIDS pushed for specific targets, signalling a shift away from traditional G77 approaches and towards more differentiated priorities.

  
  

• Signals from UNGA highlighted the urgency of adaptation finance, noting that the current global goal expires in 2025. Discussions suggested that any new EU target may rely less on scaling up public funding and more on reallocating existing resources — primarily through additional grants designed to leverage private finance, rather than a significant increase in a new EU adaptation finance target.

  
  

• The Adaptation is life: Scaling up Financing for Adaptation on the Road to COP30 event underscored the importance of adaptation for safeguarding investments, with strong private-sector participation.

  
  

• The CVF leaders’ published a Declaration that calls for urgent scaling of adaptation finance, debt relief mechanisms, and climate resilience strategies to protect the world’s most vulnerable nations and ensure equity in global climate governance.

  
  

• Ministers, mayors, and NGOs convened a Solutions Dialogue on Early Warning Systems, Extreme Heat, Adaptation and Climate Finance, at which Portugal, the Rockefeller Foundation, and ClimateWorks  announced new funding for early warning systems.

  
  

• What next? Despite multiple discussions, including a series of events convened by the Solidarity Levies Taskforce, there is still little clarity on which innovative finance ideas are genuinely feasible. As the Philippines noted, NDCs should be treated as investment plans, highlighting the need to align adaptation and resilience ambitions with real financial pathways.

Climate finance dominated calls but delivery fell short

• UNGA saw bold finance signals but concrete commitments remain scarce, with ambition still outpacing delivery. Despite the private sector signalling it would miss CWNYC this year, many were present and working constructively in closed-door sessions, including on portfolio decarbonisation and building financial sector resilience to continue driving net zero and 1.5°C alignment across the real economy.

  
  

• At the Global Renewables Summit, more than a dozen world leaders issued bold calls to scale up finance for developing countries to access the green energy transition, while ministers and subnational leaders put resilience in the spotlight, urging agreements at COP30 to expand adaptation action and mobilise innovative new finance.

  
  

• At the NDC Summit, leaders repeatedly underscored the need for scaled-up finance to deliver national commitments, with developing countries emphasising their willingness to act but stressing that they lack the resources to do so.

  
  

• President Lula announced a $1 billion initial pledge to the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF)^[1][2].

  
  

• A coalition of nearly 40 former heads of state and government called for a permanent “polluter profit” tax on fossil companies, arguing that this could raise up to $400 billion in the first year to fund renewable energy, adaptation, and protection of vulnerable communities.

  • Kenya highlighted the work of the Global Solidarity Levies Taskforce as a potential avenue for innovative climate finance.

    
    

• China announced it will relinquish seeking “special and differential treatment” (benefits reserved for developing countries) in future WTO negotiations, a symbolic step toward trade reform and greater credibility as a major global economy.

  
  

• The Declaration published by CVF Leaders calls for extending debt repayment terms (to 40 years), lowering interest rates, reforming debt sustainability analyses, and restructuring frameworks to reduce the debt burden on climate-vulnerable nations.

  
  

• What next? Brazil’s TFFF commitment needs to be leveraged by key prospective contributors, including those represented at Lula’s TFFF solutions dialogue. Dedicated L+D finance needs more attention; it cannot be ignored in favour of adaptation. Follow-up action with high net worth and philanthropies will be key to encourage them to contribute $5bn in Sponsor Capital by COP30. 

  
  

 Key Recommendations

The COP presidency urgently needs to respond to the NDC ambition gap

• The Brazilian presidency should be applauded for its energy and commitment. However, its credibility now largely depends on how successfully it closes the gap between the desire for cooperation and the need for urgent action.

  
  

• Some countries, like China, have a history of underpromising and overdelivering on climate commitments, whereas others, like the US, have a history of overpromising and  underdelivering. Both strategies weaken the efficacy of the ambition ratchet, as well as the transparency and accountability mechanisms built into the Paris Agreement. 

  
  

• One key way to respond to this problem is via a Cover Decision which responds to the gap with suggestions for ways forward. This offers a procedural mechanism to balance different elements, allowing countries to collectively ratchet up ambition rather than engaging in zero-sum trade-offs.

  
  

• The COP Presidency can start prepping the COP30 package in the run-up to the Leaders Segment, including at pre-COP, annual meetings, IPCC63, and the G7 Environment & Climate Ministerial, using the High Ambition Coalition’s statements and the EU Commission’s "all hands on deck" letter to develop and socialise formal outcomes, including on a Cover Decision and Action Agenda.

  
  

• The ambition gap is not just about temperature thresholds, it also encompasses adaptation, loss and damage, and finance. Meaningful ambition will include concrete progress on other crucial deliverables including the Belém Action Mechanism on Just Transition, an ambitious Baku-to-Belém roadmap, a Global Goal on Adaptation, are other crucial deliverables, as well as attention to integrated, whole of economy National Transition Plans.

  
  

• Actors including business and subnationals can help support calls for higher ambition.

  
  

• Many in the private sector are already calling for fixed NDC targets rather than ranges, which create uncertainty for markets and investors, and make it more difficult to effectively plan the pace of industrial transition.

  
  

• Subnational groups, including particularly America is All In reinforced their commitment to working with states, cities, and businesses to build an ‘all of society’ approach to meet the U.S. NDC. They and other subnational leaders should be encouraged and empowered to help countries go further and faster.

Harness the momentum around energy transition to push for fossil fuel phaseout 

• The COP30 presidency has signalled that it is open to multilateral negotiations on fossil fuel phase out. The time is right—UNGA showed that there is growing multilateral momentum for this that should not be squandered, throughout and beyond COP30.

  
  

  • Before and during COP30, leaders can send a unified, high-level message of unity on the transition, together with concrete ideas for moving forward. A focus on energy transition can also help strengthen the Brazilian presidency’s action agenda, enabling it to showcase concrete delivery, including via the Just Transition Platforms and the newer Country Platforms, as well as to highlight roadblocks and the steps being taken to overcome them, including access to private finance and pushing for more public finance announcements.

  • The private sector can support this push: 97% of executives in 15 major economies support the transition to renewable energy, with 78% advocating for it within 10 years.

  • Post COP, Colombia’s Fossil Fuel Phaseout Conference could add to the process, continuing to build momentum toward COP31. Brazil and Colombia will need to work together on this. It is important that whatever emerges has a strong process around it that allows conversations to be iterative and to have concrete outcomes that feed back into other multilateral spaces like COP.

Start proactively declaring what we want from a COP31 host

• It is now urgent to identify a COP31 host, enabling an arc to be built from Brazil to the next COP.

• The decision on who the COP31 host will be must centre on their climate credentials, with the best “pitch” being focused on their credibility, ambition, and dedication. Potential COP hosts need to be clear about how they are going to be an effective dialogue and negotiation space to:

  • accelerate the global transition using the global stocktake;

  • improve countries’ ability to respond to the impacts of climate change and address the losses and damages they are experiencing;

  • speak to the need to transform global financial systems so that we are tackling the problem of climate change rather than deepening it.

Take defending multilateralism to the next level

• UNGA proved that leaders are willing to step up and defend multilateralism. This is hugely important, but showing up is not enough. Leaders must also demonstrate that they still have ambition, and let the US and other blockers know that they will not succeed in watering it down.

  
  

• Climate has proved itself to be a key way to foster multilateral cooperation, and Lula’s pitch to bring climate change into the “heart of the UN” via a new climate council linked to the General Assembly can offer a valuable way to reinvigorate the institution and better deliver on climate.

  
  

• Inversely, climate needs to be better integrated into other multilateral processes, including the G20 and other regional fora, in a controlled way that does not disconnect action from the Paris Agreement’s goals. Similarly, the increase of fora for coordinating just transition is heartening but also risks weakening collective action. COP30 will be an important moment to address this issue.

Integrate biodiversity into climate action

• At the UNGA80 high-level event Towards a Resilient Future: Synergies between Climate and Nature on the Road to COP30, Colombia launched a global initiative to better align the climate and biodiversity agendas, calling for a political mandate to ensure biodiversity is fully integrated into climate action.

  
  

• Support Colombia’s proposal to introduce a new agenda item at COP30 on integrating climate, biodiversity, and land.

  
  

• Endorse the creation of a Special Expert Group tasked with developing recommendations on how biodiversity can be systematically incorporated into climate decisions.

  
  

• Push for stronger coordination between UNFCCC, CBD, and UNCCD to avoid silos and accelerate delivery.

  
  

• Ensure the initiative places the Amazon, Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendant and local communities at its core, alongside calls for fair financing and a rapid fossil fuel phaseout.

^[1] A further $24 billion is required from governments and major philanthropies to achieve the $125 billion fund target and attract another $100 billion from private investors.

^[2] The TFFF received broad support from a diverse set of countries. The following governments applauded Brazil’s pledge and expressed general enthusiasm for the initiative: Guyana, Colombia, UK, EU, Norway, China, Germany, UAE, France, Denmark, Madagascar, Honduras, Ireland, Cambodia, Indonesia, Equatorial Guinea, Republic of the Congo, Angola, Nigeria, Mexico, Ghana, Malaysia, and Ecuador.