What the Iran War Tells Us About Energy Security.

Two weeks into the US-Israel war on Iran, and the disruption to global energy markets has already presented key lessons on the fragility of energy security and the need to accelerate global renewable energy adoption.

As a backlash to US and Israel attacks on Iran’s leadership and key infrastructure, Iran has closed the strait of Hormuz – one of a few maritime oil transit chokepoints where about 20% of global oil passes through (Figure 1). The war has also created instability in the Middle East through retaliation attacks across the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Saudia Arabia, and others.

Figure 1 - U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2026

As a result, energy prices soared due to brent crude, the international benchmark, rising dramatically   – from $10 a barrel to over $100 (Figure 2). This conflict is highlighting how energy security is at the mercy of trade routes and geopolitical stability – which currently are both at threat.

Figure 2 - The Guardian, 2026.

What is Energy Security?

We should take a moment to reflect on what energy security is and how critical it is to a state’s sovereignty and prosperity. Defined as the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price, energy security should be a basic commodity globally. This is because our livelihoods depend on it – from switching the lights on to farming and industrial operations. Without access to affordable energy, communities are at risk of poverty, illness, and conflict. As seen during the industrial revolution, energy is directly linked with economic growth and social development. However, as seen today, in an era of globalisation and international trade, energy security is more at risk than ever.

How Renewable Energy Can Help Strengthen Energy Security.

Energy prices have increased over the last weeks because global maritime supply routes have been interrupted. This highlights a key advantage of alternative energy sources such as solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear: at present, they appear more stable, with renewable energy showing an impressive and stable decline in prices and costs over decades as seen in Figure 3.

Figure 3 - Visual Capitalist, 2025.

The Geopolitical Costs of Fossil Dependence.

Recent findings from the Climate Change Committee have shown that the cost to the UK from the fossil fuel crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war over four years was 80% higher than the investment required to transition to net zero by 2050.

Moreover, with three-quarters of states being net importers of fossil fuels, the vast majority of the global population remains exposed to extreme price volatility. For a country to thrive, remain stable, and maintain sovereignty, it must control its energy sources. Reliance on imported fossil fuels means relinquishing some of that control to foreign powers, a dependency that inevitably trickles down into the cost of living and business operation.

This means that governments have a critical responsibility to ensure energy security by, for example, reforming or entirely eliminating fossil fuel subsidies and accelerating the adoption of renewable energy. As Dave Jones, Global Insights Programme Director and co-founder at Ember stated, “Fossil fuels are like renting a home, renewables are like owning one.”.

However, it’s important to note that renewable energy and electrified equipment (including vehicles) are not fully exempt from the risk of disruption. The supply chain for low-carbon energy systems is largely concentrated in China – which gives the country leverage over prices and supply. However, the risk of disruption appears lower with low-carbon energy for several reasons. First, we have first-hand evidence of the instability of fossil fuels, from the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Second, while fossil fuels are immediately consumed and need to be constantly supplied, low-carbon energy systems are stable capital. Once installed, there is a timeframe of several years, even decades during which they continue to generate energy. At the end of their lifecycle, with good enough recycling processes, a proportion of the raw materials could be recovered.

Low-carbon energy systems are not a complete antidote to price instability, but they are certainly the better option in the context of global oil production being close to peak, requiring a phase-out due to exacerbating climate change, and where oil production and control can be subject of conflict.

Call-to-action.

This can all change with the right enabling policies – from renewable energy development to incentivising clean energy production and use. However, for that to occur, organisations must advocate for them to governments. Membership bodies are uniquely positioned to do so by representing their industries and professions and having a sector-wide understanding of what is needed.

If you are a membership body and would like to include your voice in such policy advocacy, CAFA has recently launched its Responsible Policy Engagement strategy focusing on different policy related issues and solutions. By grouping different membership bodies into working groups, CAFA can amplify our voices and find the right enabling solutions. If you are interested in joining one of our working groups, please reach out to guillaume@cafacollective.org or by simply joining us today.