Australian Associations misled on bad news and actual good outcomes from COP30

The 11 days of global annual program of COP30 came to an end with agreements impacting how associations, businesses, and individuals must operate to align with the Paris Agreement. So, CAFA has summarised facts in this insight specifically for our Australian associations enabling them to plan and allocate resources accordingly.

Australian media were distracted by Türkiye and Australia seemingly competing to host COP31 – obscuring their coverage of COP30 and causing Australian associations to miss both dire news and positive progress relevant to their board directors, executives and members.

1.      Türkiye COP31. All COPs work on consensus, and with Türkiye determined not to withdraw a second time for another country, Australia withdrew its bid for Türkiye to host COP31 in 2026. This frequently practiced diplomacy has a focus on progress, not ‘winning’. It is not a sporting competition as some in Australian media and politicians portrayed it. Like Brazil, Türkiye is a large country with 85 million people, a proud culture and a rapidly changing economy that is central to global diplomacy and trade.

2.      Truly global, Pacific and professional capacity in Australia. In a good sign of cooperation, Australia will appoint the President of Negotiations, likely to be Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen. This unique partnership with Türkiye will unite Northern and Southern Hemispheres on this urgent global issue. Importantly, it has also been agreed that a pre-COP event will be held in the Pacific bringing great attention to the loss of island communities under rising seas.

The President’s role will be very demanding of Australian and state governments and will likely ripple through Australian industry and trade sectors. We will have both a closer seat and closer scrutiny upon our performance. We anticipate that it will lift the climate and emission expertise and professional capacity in Australia for the better.

3.      Dire news for safe climate and breakaway Plan. COP opened with frightening and sobering news that 2024 breached the 1.5°C warming threshold agreed to in Paris. Further bad news revealed global warming is predicted to exceed 2.5°C by the end of the century, even with full implementation of all national pledges and policies; the positive was that without the Pledges -emissions cut, phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies, halt deforestation, etc - global average temperatures would rise above 5°C. Day 1 was gruelling. Data showed the following: earth is losing resilience, oceans are warming, ocean currents are slowing, natural carbon sinks are releasing greenhouse gases (forests and peat), biodiversity is declining. Land and cities are getting hotter, ground water is depleting, populations are losing water - and agriculture, economies and productivity are declining. Language was frank and direct on the urgency and catastrophic impacts upon people, food, water, systems, plants and animals and civilisation. The contrast between warnings from COP and media and politicians’ statements in Australia was shocking for the misinformation misleading the public and decision makers.

Brazil’s national President was so alarmed that he opened COP calling on everyone to ‘defeat’ climate change deniers and those that impede cuts to emissions and climate action progress. This played out at COP with responsible nations, including Australia, pledging to form a Transition Plan away from Fossil Fuels outside of the official UN process. To overcome the ongoing resistance from petrostates including Saudia Arabia and Russia that has impeded progress at several COPs, 89 countries pledged to develop a phase-out of fossil fuels Roadmap. This points to a significant failure from COP30 but resulted in an extra bonus and sensible outcome: the first ever International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, co-hosted by Columbia and the Netherlands that will take place in April 2026. This will become a key transformative piece of work for industries and progressive nations.

4.      Adapting to worsening weather. Given the certainty on worsening climate, considerable time was spent at COP on adaptation.

Australian associations will be familiar with Transition Plans as they enable collective understanding, planning, refinancing, evolution of businesses, investments and societies. They are challenging, and especially when they deal with risk, loss, displacement, destruction and costs; people are wishful for positive growth and continuity which are all threatened by climate change.

Association’s own strategies and member Transition Plans will need to include cuts to polluting emissions as well as adaptation to predicted worsening weather events.

5.      Stop greenwashing with carbon offsets, instead stop pollution at the source. There is a growing movement across the world, and in Australia, away from buying carbon offsets and toward making real cuts to emissions.

This is not to say that carbon markets are dead, rather that there is ongoing concern around credibility of methodologies, scope, lack of consistency and transparency meaning that offsetting via carbon credits requires diligence on quality and reliability.  COP30 did not result in agreements on alignment of different national carbon credit systems. Given the urgency to cut emissions, carbon markets are increasingly seen as a diversion from real action to cut pollution.

Associations can adjust their advice to members to invest in clean energy and efficiency to cut GHG emissions at the source instead of buying carbon credits as an offset.

6.      End of Paris targets? Or turn of the tide? Proving the value of COPs and collective action over the last few decades, Executive Secretary of UN Framework of Convention on Climate Change, Simon Stiell, reported that the growth rate of emissions is slowing and will bend downwards as nations implement their pledges. It was frequently reiterated and abundantly obvious that all nations must implement their pledges, and all decision makers in businesses, communities and governments must fast track cuts to their emissions, especially in Australia which has much catching up to do.

7.      Australian Targets for 2030, 2035 and 2050. The Australian Government has pledged and passed legislation that we will cut emissions by 43% by 2030 over 2005 levels, placing Australia toward the front of the global pack on pledge rates. However, the reduction rate is based on a very high baseline, established under Howard, and globally known as the ‘Australian Clause’ under the Kyoto Protocol. Given Australia was so late to commit to cut emissions, by 2030 Australia’s emissions intensity will remain higher than comparable nations. The current targets provide Australian industries and businesses with the opportunity to be moderately globally competitive for emission intensity of products in the global race to zero emissions.

For Australian industry associations, businesses and households, this equates to a minimum ~7% reduction per year mainly from energy and electricity, but also cleaner production systems (heating, cooling, chemicals), cleaner transport, reduced land clearing and organics diverted from landfills.

Presentations at COP showed positive examples of global momentum for cleaner production, clean electricity and lower emissions.

8.      Increasing specifics on changing sectors and money. Early COPs featured high level statements that were relatively easy for short news grabs and agreements but didn’t result in concrete action. Recent COPs, however, have improved their focus on specific targets and actions on each GHG gas, sources and financial costs. This has also been married with increased knowledge and proof on pollution trends with weather, impacts from and upon sectors (energy, transport, cement, waste, livestock, etc) and societies, and how we got into this mess.

For example, Day 11 in Belém focused on the unsustainability of our current food systems given the high emissions and loss of resilience. It looked at ways to cut meat consumption, cropping for livestock, and switch subsidies from meat and dairy to lower carbon-emitting forms of agriculture and land use. Denmark pledged to place a carbon tax on agriculture per tonne of CO2 from 2030, providing an incentive for farmers to cut emissions and financial support for industry transitions and re-forestation.

9.      Conclusion

COP30 saw a record number of fossil-fuel lobbyists in attendance, 1 for every 25 delegates, who were determined to preserve their interests, whether in connection with carbon offsets or continued sales. This noise and friction will continue in various ways at COP, around the world and within Australia, whether on wording or refusal to commit to targets, programs and investments.

It is easy to get distracted and delay waiting for consensus, but the reality is there is an unavoidable tide toward cuts to pollution and adaptation particularly from local governments around the world and from leading businesses and communities.

Nor does this noise diminish the overall trend or urgency for all parties to do two things: 1. cut emissions and 2. adapt to the very certain negative impacts of worsening climate.

CAFA celebrates and welcomes those Australian associations and members that are taking action in both cutting emissions and adapting. These associations and their members are more likely to survive as the situation becomes more dire over the next few years and into the future. CAFA is here to help on both counts. In this respect when the climate chips are down, leading climate active associations have a better chance to win!

For more information on the general outcomes from COP30, visit the insight “COP30: What the Outcomes Mean for Associations, Businesses and Society – A CAFA Perspective”.

If you require support, CAFA has free guidance and information to help you. If you, or your membership organisation, are not already a member, join CAFA today.