Countdown to COP31: What you need to know about the “COP of the Future”

“We are the first generation with the tools to end the fossil fuel age – and the last who can avert climate catastrophe.” António Guterres, UN Secretary-General

We are only a few days away from the 31^st Conference of the Parties (COP31), an annual international summit under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This year an estimated 100,000 delegates will come together in Antalya, Türkiye to negotiate and advance collective action to combat climate change.

Described by the COP31 Presidency as the “COP of the Future”, this year aims to elevate climate action “beyond abstract promises and commitments, transitioning into verified, measurable implementation”. Over the next two weeks, we can expect key debates around phasing out fossil fuels, climate finance and implementation of promises.

Global context

COPs have run every year since 1995 when the UNFCCC came into effect after the Earth Summit in Rio 1992. These annual summits have served as the primary global platform for climate negotiations and further progress towards the Paris Agreement (COP15) goals.

The Conference is coming at a crucial time for climate action. Earlier this year the UN found that exceeding the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5°C degrees of global warming is unavoidable. Climate models have shown that limiting warming to 1.5°C may include an overshoot window; so it is crucial to limit the overshoot to as low and as little time as possible.

Last year in Belem, Brazil, President Lula had high ambitions for COP30; he called for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels and end deforestation. However, the conference did not deliver on its goals: although 80 countries agreed a roadmap, major petrostates pushed back and a consensus could not be agreed. This puts more pressure on discussions at COP31, in the face of rising global temperatures and a year of extreme climate hazards, heatwaves and floods.

There were some positive outcomes. Despite a global downward trend in funding climate action, countries reaffirmed the pathway set in Baku (COP29) to mobilise US 1.3trillion dollars in annual funding[GU1]  for developing nations by 2035.  

We can expect similar areas of contention this year, although a key difference will be the attendance of delegates from the ‘America is All In’ coalition, a group of US leaders and advocates committed to continuing dialogue.

The Vision for COP31

Leaders agreed at COP30 that the Paris Agreement is working, without multilateral agreements like these the world would be on course for 4 °C of warming.

But this year, commitments need to turn into implementation and ‘projects on the ground’. The president of Türkiye has reminded Parties to strengthen cooperation and turn commitments into concrete action.

From 9 to 20 November, nearly 100 agenda items are expected, organised around 12 thematic days, summarised below. Next week will also see the Leaders Summit on Days 3 and 4, with the COP31 dual Presidents addressing global leaders and hoping to build political momentum.

Key issues to watch

At COP31, nations will try to find agreement on various issues, including climate finance for developing countries and a global “just transition” away from fossil fuels towards a cleaner economy.

1)    Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuels are expected to be a defining issue at COP31. The UN Emissions Gap Report underscores that the world remains behind on the action needed to meet international climate goals –  and “action”, in this context, is to switch from fossil to low-carbon energy and low-carbon agriculture.

COP28 in Dubai marked an important step, with countries agreeing to “transition away from fossil fuels”. However, limited progress since then has exposed the political obstacles in implementing such transition. In response to this lack of momentum, Colombia announced plans to host the First International Conference for the Phase-out of Fossil Fuels in April 2026, with 50+ countries participating.

At COP31, attention will therefore focus on whether negotiators can move beyond broad language and establish a concrete global roadmap. Success would require timelines to be clearer and adequate to the global crisis at hand, as well as sufficient support for countries and communities affected by the shift to a cleaner economy.

2)    Finance and Adaptation

Finance and adaptation will be central to negotiations at COP31. Developing countries are calling for greater support to respond to the escalating impacts of the climate crisis.

These discussions will take place against a difficult financial backdrop. Major donors are cutting aid budgets, while the Trump administration is pressuring multilateral development banks to abandon their climate objectives. This is likely to intensify debate over who should provide funding and how quickly it should reach countries on the front line of climate

change.

COP31 is also expected to include replenishment efforts for several major funding mechanisms, including the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Fund and the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage.

3)    Delivery

Underlying the negotiation of all issues this year will be a drive towards measurable, actionable solutions. In this light, the COP31 Presidency announced the ‘Action Agenda’ earlier this year, ten areas to focus on for real world solutions.

The action agenda is meant to provide a complementary track to the formal negotiations, where governments and non-state actors can advance specific, real-world actions. The agenda items form the basis of the ‘Thematic Day’ structure.

Day 11 for example, focuses explicitly on enhancing implementation through the Climate Implementation Bridge (BRIDGE), developed under the COP31 Presidency. BRIDGE aims to strengthen the connection between national climate priorities, investment opportunities, and financing partners.

Therefore, COP31 will be judged less by the negotiated text it produces and more by its ability to accelerate implementation, investment and real-world delivery against a backdrop of pressure to limit global warming overshoot of 1.5°C.

About CAFA

Climate Action for Associations (CAFA) are attending COP31 in Antalya as official NGO Observers. This year we are also attending in a virtual capacity, providing our members with direct reporting from the heart of the negotiations. We are committed to delivering daily insights to ensure you stay fully informed on the outcomes that matter to membership organisations and their members.

You can find daily updates here

Learn more about CAFA and how you can join here.