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Is Quantum Computing On Track To Accelerate Decarbonisation?

Writer's picture: Guillaume LaneGuillaume Lane

Quantum computing, long considered the domain of futuristic speculation, is steadily transitioning to real-world applications. Recent breakthroughs by major players like Google and IBM signal significant strides in error correction, scalability, and computation speed.


These advancements may unlock new possibilities in industries ranging from pharmaceuticals to energy. But one area where quantum computing shows immense promise is materials science - a key to addressing the challenges of decarbonising the global economy.


Now, quantum computing might sound slightly Sci-Fi and it's hard for non-experts to understand why it has any relevance. As Mark Cupta, VC investor in climate technology, explains it: "quantum computing could dramatically increase our level of computing power and crunch the time necessary to process complex calculations." While current computing technologies solve problems in series by default (even though that can be worked around), quantum computing can solve them in parallel.


Recent Quantum Computing Breakthroughs


In December 2024, Google introduced its "Willow" quantum processor, a major leap forward in quantum computing. Up until now, as more qubits were added (the basic units of quantum computing), errors would increase. Google's Willow has managed to result in the opposite outcome: the more qubits are added, the lower the number of errors. This is a stride in solving a challenge that has kept researchers busy for decades.


This progress is crucial for making quantum computers practical for solving real-world problems. For example, Willow solved a calculation in under five minutes that would take the fastest traditional supercomputer over 10 septillion years - a quadrillion times the age of the universe.​


This year, IBM has also progressed with its "Heron" quantum processor, which can handle more complex tasks, nearly doubling previous capabilities. IBM’s work includes blending quantum and classical computing, which is ideal for tackling scientific challenges like simulating new materials or chemical reactions​.


These breakthroughs show that quantum computing is moving from theoretical concepts to practical applications, paving the way for innovations in fields like materials science and chemistry.


Why Quantum Computing Matters for Decarbonisation


The global transition to net zero presents a paradox: the renewable energy infrastructure and electrification of end uses needed to decarbonise the economy depend heavily on materials like lithium, copper, and rare earth metals. Extracting and processing these materials can harm biodiversity, pollute ecosystems, and pose human health risks. This creates an urgent need for alternatives that minimise environmental and social costs.


Quantum computing could be a game-changer in this space. By simulating molecular interactions at an unprecedented level of detail, quantum computers could accelerate the discovery of new materials that are more abundant, sustainable, and efficient.


Examples include developing advanced materials for batteries that reduce dependence on scarce resources like cobalt and lithium; designing catalysts for carbon capture technologies, making them more effective and affordable; identifying novel compounds to improve solar panel efficiency without requiring rare metals.


These innovations could dramatically reduce the environmental toll of renewable energy systems while accelerating their deployment.


The Road Ahead


Despite the hype, quantum computing is still in its early days. Key challenges remain, including the need to scale logical qubits and reduce error rates to commercially viable levels. Current applications, while promising, are largely experimental.


However, industry leaders are optimistic. Tools like IBM’s Qiskit platform are already enabling researchers to design algorithms for real-world problems, such as modelling chemical interactions for decarbonisation technologies. As these systems mature, their potential to tackle climate challenges will only grow.


Is It Really A Game Changer?


Quantum computing offers an interesting new tool for global efforts towards sustainability. For governments, businesses, and researchers, supporting this technology is essential - not just as an academic pursuit but as a practical solution to some of the most pressing challenges of our time. By enabling breakthroughs in materials science, quantum computing could help address current challenges in the transition to a decarbonised economy.


However it's important to stay realistic: this tool might be useful for the medium term (net zero by 2050) or the long game (1.5°C by 2100), but it's too early to say if it will have any role to play in short term targets (-42% global emissions by 2030). It does seem unlikely that they will be of any significant help at this stage. For these computers to improve, scale up, come up with new materials, and then for these materials to be mass produced, which requires knowledge, skill, specialised equipment, we will likely need decades.


It's not impossible that the technology will contribute in coming years. The role of quantum computing in materials science could be akin to the one AlphaFold has played in biology in past few years.


Every two years since 1993 a competition has been held to assess new ways to predict how protein folds. Shape is a core part of how a protein works, and how it folds dictates its shape. The problem that researchers had been having for years was that predicting how a protein folds is extremely hard due to endless possibilities.


Google DeepMind revolutionised the field by introducing a machine learning tool called AlphaFold for predicting protein folding and shapes. AlphaFold has proven so effective and so much better at that task than other methods, that there have been conversations about the relevance of the competition after such a feat of strength.


We could imagine quantum computing having a similar impact in materials science, producing a wave of knowledge within a few years only - AI has set the precedent for it.


The Other Term of the Equation


Technology, while necessary for fighting climate change (think of direct air capture, batteries, solar panels, heat pumps, electric vehicles), is only a part of the solution. All technologies require physical resources, energy, and significant investment which are all costly and take time. The impact that quantum computing could have is only mere speculation, and even though the technology is promising, right now we need solutions for the present.


Due to the monumental challenge of replacing (and growing) global infrastructure with decarbonised alternatives, we need to look for complementary, realistic solutions that don't rely only on technology. The other term of the equation for net zero is behavioural: individuals, public institutions and businesses need to consume less, and we need to collectively design our economic systems around the constraint of decreasing demand.


Membership organisations play a crucial role in accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy. By facilitating knowledge sharing, networking, and collaboration, they can help members adopt best practices and embrace low-carbon innovations. Additionally, they can provide essential resources like training, policy advocacy, and access to cutting-edge research—supporting both technological advancements and behavioral change.


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Join Climate Action for Associations today to take meaningful steps toward shaping the future of climate action within their industry. Click the link to learn more.

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