Launch of RMetS’s State of the Climate for the UK Energy Sector 2024-25 Report

On Monday the 20^th of October, The Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS), a CAFA member, launched the second report of their series “State of the Climate for the UK Energy Sector” for the period between April 2024 and April 2025. During the launch event, supported by AECOM, three key speakers discussed the findings of their research: Dr James Mollard, Dr Hannah Bloomfield, and Stephen Swabey. By analysing the most impactful weather conditions in the UK, the report explores weather implications on the generation, demand, and infrastructure of the energy sector.  

This article breaks down the key findings in simple terms, explaining what these climate challenges mean for the UK and how we can prepare for a more resilient energy future. 

Impact of weather on generation and demand 

Firstly, during the period examined, 28.1% of electricity was generated by wind, 27.4% was generated by gas, 13.9% by nuclear, and 5.2% by solar. The use of gas is steadily decreasing, having fallen in recent years from 40% in 2022 to 31% in 2023. This aligns with the wider global trend of renewable energy slowly overtaking fossil fuels in electricity generation. 

The biggest factors for electricity and gas demand were identified to be local temperatures, daylight hours, and wind chill. This was further emphasised with demand being the highest during the winter. The issue arises from high-pressure meteorological events (which reduce wind generation), often associated with cold spells and extreme temperatures. These events increase the demand for electricity through increased use for air conditioning and heating – and simultaneously reduce the generation of wind energy. Therefore, in both situations, reliance on gas-fired power plants is increased to balance out the grid. 

When demand is high and renewable energy generation is low, the energy system turns towards gas and coal power plants, storage, and imports from other countries. On the other hand, when renewable generation is higher than demand, the excess electricity must either be stored, matched by a surge in demand, or exported to other markets. If these options are not available, renewable energy generation must be decreased to ensure the grid remains balanced. However, this comes at a cost, as electricity producers are paid to reduce the amount of energy they supply. 

Impact of weather on energy infrastructure

The report explored the impact of extreme weather events on the generation, distribution, and transmission of renewable energy as their infrastructure is more vulnerable than the gas network. The report showed that the grid is vulnerable year-round. During winter, windstorms were identified as the most damaging weather event. They resulted in overhead lines, pylons, poles and other network assets disrupted which led to blackouts and disconnections.  

In the summer, thunderstorms and extreme heat were the culprits. Lightning, for instance, is extremely difficult to predict. Rainfall leads to flash flooding, and extreme heat can lead to damage of overhead lines and decreasing the efficiency of electricity transfer. Extreme heat has also led to wildfires and droughts which can also damage network assets.  

The report also highlighted a crucial point: the damage is not always about how strong a storm is. A storm’s impact is much worse if it occurs after a very wet period as it increases flooding, or after a very dry one as it increases wildfires. The location of a storm, whether it hits a city or farmland, is also a major determinant of the scale of the disruption. 

Implications for the future  

Demand for electricity will drastically increase with the electrification of heat, transport and industrial processes. Scenario modelling showed that wind generation will contribute a large share of renewable energy, at times generating more than the level of demand. This means there is an opportunity for the extra energy to be stored and used in moments of low renewable generation and high demand.    

Additionally, the findings of the report stress the importance of accurate weather forecasting to prepare additional generation sources and maintain grid stability. It also highlights how a grid reliant on renewable energy (wind and solar) will be increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, calling for the thorough examination of solutions such as energy-storage, demand flexibility, interconnectors, and gas-fired generation. The report suggests that different sectors – from electricity generation to suppliers – work together to deepen understanding of how climate change impacts the energy system especially one that is increasingly becoming decentralised.  

RMetS has done a fantastic job in moving the conversation from abstract climate risk to tangible system impact. By analysing weather events throughout the year and dissecting their impact on the UK energy system, they have provided the data needed to understand the problem we are facing and the solution needed for futureproofing our energy grid against a climate that is already changing.  

It is imperative to understand the deeper message here. The longer we wait to decarbonise our economies, the more severe global warming becomes. The result of this is increasingly more extreme weather events that in turn, increase energy demand and damage to energy assets. This is a critical issue to address, given the potential for substantial repair costs. With prices of renewable energy falling, it is much cheaper to fully decarbonise than dealing with the damages of future climate change. 

Lastly, the report also highlights that the impacts of climate change are already being felt on the energy sector.  Efforts, therefore, should focus both on mitigation (scaling up renewable energy) and adaptation (creating a resilient, decentralised grid).  

Additionally, extreme weather events disrupting energy infrastructure will also damage infrastructure essential for other sectors such as roads, buildings and farmland. Therefore, decarbonisation efforts can no longer be ignored: everyone and every organisation must hold up to their individual responsibilities and focus on reducing their environmental footprints to avoid the most severe consequences of a changing climate. 

Explore the full report via this link. If you are a membership organisation seeking to understand and act on your climate responsibilities, we invite you to contact us or become a CAFA member.