The Paradox of Global Warming? Colder Winters.

From Northern Ireland to Amsterdam, much of Europe has experienced winter frost with temperatures falling as low as -12°C. This has led to numerous cold-weather warnings across the UK, urging the public to remain cautious of ice and snow. Somewhat counterintuitively, these conditions may feel almost reassuring to some, giving the impression that global warming is not as serious as often suggested. If such low temperatures occur, it may seem at first glance as though climate scientists are, at least to some extent, mistaken when it comes to climate change.

Unfortunately, this is not the case. What Europe is currently experiencing is known as a “winter snap” or “cold spell” - frigid weather that lasts over multiple consecutive days, bringing below average cold temperatures, and impacting large geographic areas. The bad news? It is believed that climate change will be exacerbating these cold spells in frequency and intensity.

However, when trying to forecast these events precisely i.e. beyond trends and average estimates, it is difficult to assess precisely how climate change and global warming will impact these cold snaps due to the influence of natural climate variability, the limitations of computer modelling, and the uncertainty of future human involvement.

For now, researchers widely acknowledge that Arctic warming and the reduction of sea ice are altering ocean-atmosphere dynamics, which may in turn affect the jet stream responsible for directing weather systems. Simply put, changes in wind patterns can and will drive cold Arctic air further south.

Therefore, cold snaps are expected to become more frequent and more severe in the Northern Hemisphere. In line with this, the National Emergency Briefing held in December warned about the possibility of cold snaps bringing temperatures as low as -20°C which the UK is not equipped for. They urged wartime-scale action to reduce anthropogenic emissions and reduce the global warming trajectory that we currently are on.

This is critical as when cold snap occurs in conjunction with poor mitigation measures, significant costs and impacts can ensue. Within the last few days, hundreds of schools have closed, transportation systems have shut down, and the UK experienced increased strain on the energy grid. Moreover, Oxford University revealed that NHS England spends around £3billion yearly on illnesses linked to both cold and hot extreme weather temperatures. Other estimates point to a possible economic loss of assets from extreme weather events (including wildfires, storms, etc) of €208 billion for the European Union between 2021 and 2024 alone.

In other words, anthropogenic emissions from sources such as burning fossil fuels are causing global warming, exacerbating climate change, and causing rapid arctic ice loss. In turn, this is disrupting jet streams that are fundamental to fragile weather patterns and cause severe extreme weather events such as the current cold snap in much of Europe. This is creating increasing costs for governments, healthcare, and people.

What can we do about it? While some changes are locked in, the more greenhouse gases we emit the more severe these weather events become. By reducing emissions and by adapting to climate risk such as extreme cold snaps, we can contain the negative impacts climate change has on people and businesses.

About CAFA

Climate Action for Associations (CAFA) is the only dedicated network and resource hub focused on sustainability and net zero for the membership sector. CAFA equips professional bodies and trade associations with the guidance, tools, and peer-to-peer connections they need to take meaningful climate action and support their members in doing the same.

If you're a membership organisation wishing to know more about what you can do to support your members with sustainability and addressing climate risks, join Climate Action for Associations here.