The Beginning of the End for North Sea Drilling?

In late November 2025, the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero published a new strategy called the North Sea Future Plan – alongside the new Autumn Budget for 2025 – centred around three key areas:

1. Growing Clean Energy                          

2. Support the management of existing oil and gas fields for their lifespan

3. And help North Sea workers and communities make the transition

   
   

This is a historical milestone as the UK becomes the world’s largest economy to end new oil and gas exploration, making good on the Labour’s Party’s promise to do so.

Essentially, the plan has been designed to transition away from fossil fuels in a just and managed way. This is the first step in a long journey, but a big one nonetheless. It bans licenses for exploration of new oil and gas fields – effectively banning the opening of new offshore fields entirely. However, the plan has introduced a new type of permit called a Transitional Energy Certificate which allows oil and gas companies to continue extracting from areas near the existing licensed fields using existing infrastructure. These projects known as “tie-backs” will only be allowed when oil and gas firms prove they are necessary for an energy transition and possible without investment in any new infrastructure.

Zero Hour, the campaign group behind the Climate and Nature Bill, have analysed the possible impact of these “tie-back” projects which showed that these could yield a maximum of 45 million barrels of oil equivalent which is significantly less than what Rosebank could yield (discussed below).

This is encouraging as the government itself also described the fields as “mature” and, therefore, “naturally” less productive in amount of oil and gas extracted. In other words, with no new offshore fields opened, the UK should see a steady decline of oil and gas extracted.

Just Transition

The third key area of the plan focuses on providing the right support to oil and gas employees to transition into growing industries such as clean energy, defence, and advanced manufacturing. This component is crucial as there are currently an estimated 200,000 jobs (84,000 being in Scotland) in oil and gas production. However, the number of jobs in the sector has more than halved with an estimated loss of 450 jobs per week over ten years. With the new plan in place, this number will only further decrease.

The Plan will offer “end-to-end career support” and training backed up by £20 million from UK and Scottish governments to make sure workers can transition into new industries.

However, Areeba Hamid, Greenpeace UK’s co-executive director, explains that the budgeted £20 million will not be sufficient to make sure the transition does not leave any North Sea workers behind. He states that “However, the current plan – and the cash – to support North Sea workers doesn’t go far enough. It’s vital they are at the heart of Britain’s transition to a clean-energy superpower, not left behind by it”.

How will this impact Rosebank?

Rosebank is the UK’s largest offshore undeveloped oil fields and has been subject of debate and controversy since its owners Equinor and Ithaca have applied for drilling permission in 2022. They estimate that the field could produce over 350 million barrels of oil equivalent over its lifetime, claiming that it would be a flagship project for the UK’s offshore industry. However, others assessments suggested a yield of 500 million barrels.

Figure 1 - Rosebank oil field given go-ahead by regulators (September, 2023)

In January 2025, a court ruled that an earlier decision to agree to Rosebank’s license, given in 2023, was unlawful as the environmental review failed to account for “downstream emissions” which are emissions from burning the oil and gas extracted. Although this did not automatically cancel the license, it did prevent extraction until a new environmental statement is re-submitted and approved. Initially, the plan was to start drilling in 2025, but it has now been pushed to 2026 or later depending on regulatory consent.

It is unclear how the new Plan will affect Rosebank and its development; some believe it will halt the project entirely, while others maintain that its existing license protects it from such disruption. Another perspective suggests that even if direct development is paused, Rosebank could be revived as a “tie-back” project, using the new Transitional Energy Certificate to begin drilling.

It is imperative that the UK recognises that giving the go-ahead to Rosebank would not align with their new Plan to halt the development of new offshore oil fields and would certainly not align with a 1.5°C degree pathway as mandated in the Paris Agreement.

Concluding Remarks

The North Sea Future Plan is a world-leading and landmark plan that places the UK as a climate leader. Not only does it strengthen the UK’s climate ambitions, but it also allows it to better manage the energy transition while putting people and the economy at the centre.

Contrary to some beliefs, dependence on oil and gas puts countries at risk of global supply shocks and price volatility. Therefore, making room for renewable energy will create new jobs, decrease energy prices and price volatility, and provide cleaner air. It will decrease emissions and global warming and decrease our odds of reaching climate tipping points.  

Although this is only a partial transition given that continued oil and gas extraction will be allowed, it’s a shift in the right direction. However, it is crucial that the UK government does not see this as sufficient action toward climate progress – it’s not. Halting the opening of new oil and gas drilling does not stop the extraction from other fields. This means that although the level of emissions will decrease - or worse still, will stabilise - the UK will still be emitting GHGs from is oil & gas production. As thoroughly discussed during COP30, climate action and progress need to accelerate exponentially to reduce our eminent overshoot of 1.5°C.  We need to ensure that this is one step out of many to come.

As made evident by the National Emergency Briefing held last week, everyone needs to march at the same (fast and exponential) pace. That includes policymakers, consumers, businesses, professionals, and membership organisations. The role of industry associations in policy engagement for energy infrastructure and financial incentive structures to decarbonise is significant. When combined with the critical role professional bodies will play to ensure the transition of professionals is just and equitable, it makes membership organisations a special and extremely powerful kind of non-state actor in the climate crisis. If you are a member body and are unsure as to what this entails for you and your industry, we invite you to join CAFA for free.