World Leaders Kick Start the "COP of Truth"

On the 6^th and 7^th of November, world leaders gathered in Belém, Brazil, for the Climate Action Summit. This meeting officially marks the start of COP30 preparations and sets the tone for what is expected to be the moment we enter a global phase of implementation.

The message from our leaders was stark. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres opened with a warning we can no longer avoid: global warming will exceed the critical 1.5^∘C limit by the early 2030s, and even a temporary overshoot will bring disastrous consequences. This is not just about warming anymore; it is about the stability of our ecosystems that sustain us.

Following this warning, Brazil was among the first heads-of-state to speak up, launching their flagship project – a proposed $125 billion fund to protect the world’s forests called the Tropical Forest Forever Fund – and reinforcing the role of nature in fighting against climate change. As the “Amazon COP”, Brazil intends to make the preservation of nature and ecosystems a key solution in combatting climate change.

60 leaders from the UK, France, China, and across Africa and Latin America echoed their concerns about the lack of climate action. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, went further and announced EU’s new ambition to cut emissions by 90% by 2040.

A notable absence was the United States, who withdrew from the Paris Agreement on the first day of Trump’s presidency. Yet, while not attending COP30, its influence was felt as leaders criticized the role of Donald Trump for slowing global progress by claiming the climate urgency is a “hoax” and by blocking new climate rules, such as the tax on carbon emissions from maritime freight. Countries such as Colombia, Chile, and Ireland made direct jabs at the US for its misplaced priorities.

Although the absence of US delegates was anticipated, the absence of head-of-states from India, China, and Russia presents a significant challenge to the rest of the world. As they represent nearly half of global emissions, these countries are expected to be part of these crucial multilateral climate talks. This leaves the EU responsible for raising the necessary funds and support to maintain climate action in developing and vulnerable nations.  

An expected key topic at COP30 will be Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – plans that determine each country’s cut in emissions – distributed over 70 different events over the two weeks. The objective of NDC’s is to deliver a 60% reduction by 2035 to keep the 1.5^∘C goal achievable. However, as of the 9^th of November, only 79 countries submitted new plans accounting for 64% of global emissions. The total promised cut from these countries amount to a mere 3.1 GtCO2e. Compared to the needed cut of 28.1 GtCO2e, this is a miniscule 11%. This shortfall is so large that it puts global warming’s trajectory toward 2.5°C of warming – with a risk that beyond 1.5°C, climate change might cross tipping points and accelerate further. To address this, 70 events will tackle the Ambition Gap and work to strengthen the 2035 target to align once again with a 1.5^∘C pathway.

Secondly, talks will be centred around closing the Finance Gap through discussions of the “Baku to Belém Roadmap to $1.3tn” to scale up finance to developing countries as well as the role of International Development Banks (IDB) and International Financial Institutions (IFIs) in supporting more ambitious objectives.

The conclusion from these two-day days is undeniable: the 1.5^∘C threshold is no longer a future scenario; it is our present reality. This fundamental milestone means we cannot afford for this COP30 to become another platform for debate on fundamental climate issues. Instead, it must be the moment world leaders finally acknowledge that half-measures are far from enough. The goal now should be to launch a global effort to pull temperatures back to a safer level and safeguard millions - if not billions - of people from climate disaster. As André Corrêa do Lago states in his first letter as President of COP30, this must be the session that marks the moment the world enters a “post-negotiation” phase.

And in his tenth and final letter, do Lago stated that COP30 will be the “COP of Truth” alongside being the “Amazon COP” and the “COP of Implementation” and does so by declaring that “Either we decide to change by choice, together, or we will be imposed change by tragedy.”. These sobering words prove the urgency we face; continued inaction will soon leave us with no choices.

Climate Action for Associations (CAFA) are attending COP30 as official NGO Observer. This year we are attending in a virtual capacity, providing our members with direct reporting from the heart of the negotiations. We are committed to delivering daily insights and a comprehensive end-of-COP report to ensure you stay fully informed on the outcomes that matter to membership organisations and their members.

For more information and updates on COP30 from us, follow this link.