On Day 4 of COP29 in Baku, a key report from Climate Action Tracker cast a sobering spotlight on global warming, projecting that without stronger policies, the planet is on a trajectory for a 2.7°C rise in temperatures by the end of the century. This increase would surpass the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping warming well below 2°C, with a strong emphasis on limiting it to 1.5°C. The consequences of a 2.7°C rise would be profound, with disruptions that many scientists warn could threaten human civilisation.
A Call for Accelerated Climate Finance and Action
This forecast highlights the critical need for COP29’s financial negotiations to succeed. Developing nations are calling for $1 trillion annually by 2030 to transition to green energy and adapt to climate impacts. Half of this funding is expected to come from the private sector, with the remainder from grants, loans, and multilateral development banks like the World Bank. Negotiators, however, are struggling to define precise financial commitments that will satisfy both developed and developing nations, as funding has often fallen short or arrived in the form of loans, rather than the grants that many recipient countries prefer.
To meet these finance needs, the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance has advocated setting a new annual target of at least $1.3 trillion by 2035. This group emphasises that any delay in funding will make it harder—and more costly—to stabilise the climate in later years.
Innovative Funding Solutions: Solidarity Levies
The Global Solidarity Levies taskforce, led by Laurence Tubiana, proposed several innovative levies to raise climate funds, targeting high-carbon industries such as cryptocurrency and plastics. This includes a small charge on energy-intensive sectors like cryptocurrency mining, which could raise $5 billion annually, and a potential plastics production levy to generate $25-35 billion. While these ideas are still under discussion, they aim to provide additional support for developing nations to adapt to climate impacts and contribute to global mitigation efforts.
Diplomatic Hurdles and Political Tensions
As delegates tackle the complexities of climate finance, diplomatic disputes have cast a shadow over COP29’s goals. The U.S. is expected to be less active in climate funding following the recent election of Donald Trump. Additionally, political tensions between Azerbaijan and France, as well as Argentina’s decision to withdraw its delegation under President Javier Milei, have added friction to negotiations, potentially impacting future cooperative commitments.
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With climate finance discussions continuing into next week, COP29 faces mounting pressure to agree on actionable goals that address both financial commitments and environmental targets. As negotiators deliberate, the 2.7°C projection serves as a stark reminder that without swift and effective global action, the impacts of climate change could exceed even the most dire forecasts.
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