Day 2 at COP31: Electrification and fossil fuel phase out push take centre stage

Day two of COP31 in Antalya was devoted to energy and transport, with electrification making it to the centre of  today’s agenda through ambitious targets. This morning saw the publication of the Global Carbon Budget 2026 by the University of Exeter. The rest of the day revolved around two key discussions: the transition away from fossil fuels and electrification.

This follows the COP31 Presidency pledge to the “35 by 35” target, which would raise electricity’s share of the world’s final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, from around a fifth today.

With the Iran war and the fuel price crisis exposing the cost of relying on imported oil and gas, the convergence of energy security and climate goals has now been made evident. This is a key moment where real change can be implemented on the basis of the heightened urgency stemming from fossil fuel volatility.

However, as COP Day one was closing last night, Türkiye’s own president announced the exploration of two new oil fields. President Erdoğan’s excitement is a clear contradiction to the COP31 aims and profoundly undermines its credibility. Jeni Miller, head of the Global Climate and Health Alliance said it sends a “deeply troubling message” to those who are already facing the results of climate change.

New findings

This morning the University of Exeter set out their Global Carbon Budget 2026, a crucial report setting out the state of emissions and our remaining ‘budget’ to stay under 1.5°C of warming. The report forecasts that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will fall by about 0.4% this year, with the decline driven predominantly by a projected 1.9% decrease in oil emissions; the consequence of both the Iran war and the growth of cheap solar and wind in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, emissions from land-use change, mainly from deforestation, are set to rise this year despite declining over the past decade.

Source: Global Carbon Budget Report 2026

The headline from this presentation was that carbon budget for avoiding 1.5°C is dangerously low. Based on estimates which show a 50% chance of remaining within the target, there are around 130 GtCO2 of carbon left in the budget – just over three years’ worth of global emissions. Previous studies show that for an 83% or more chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C with no overshoot, the budget is virtually exhausted. The budget shows us the urgency of curbing emissions beyond the fractional decrease we have seen this year.

Future Earth’s climate science insights reinforce the urgency: reminding us of ocean heat continuing to climb, while climate change and increasing water use are driving rapid freshwater losses across continents.

Transitioning away from fossil fuels

After COP30 failed to include an explicit commitment to phase out fossil fuels in the final texts, Brazil’s COP30 Presidency took responsibility for developing a voluntary roadmap outside of negotiated outcomes. The initiative aims to turn the COP28 pledge to transition away from fossil fuels into practical steps for supportive countries, supporting net zero by 2050.

In this morning’s session, Brazil presented the roadmap as a tool to “give a common language for action”. The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres reminded us that an accelerated transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF) is essential if we want any chance of meeting the Paris Agreements 1.5°C goal. “It is long past the time to treat transitioning as taboo, we need to move from discussing to organising, financing and delivering”.

He set out three pleas to delegates in the TAFF:

1)       Develop national roadmaps away from fossil fuels, with clean energy expansion in importing countries and clear timelines away from fossil fuels

2)       Mobilise finance through development banks and private funds, investors must take greater risks to unlock the future of clean energy

3)       Strengthen cooperation between fossil fuel exporters and importers. Avoid taxpayer-funded fossil fuel lock-in by anticipating transition risks with dialogue and prioritise support for Least Developed Countries (LDCs).

An important point of discussion was the idea that pathways will differ for each country, but the direction is shared. The Pan African alliance asked for considerations to be made for African countries who are still industrialising and expanding energy access, who are now being asked to decarbonise.

This meeting was a welcome first step towards roadmap implementation, with further meetings planned for 2027 in Tuvalu and Ireland. We were reminded that a TAFF will be interconnected with many other commitments, such as deforestation, green industrialisation and electrification.

Electrification

This year’s first High Level Dialogue came this afternoon, the Global Electrification Forum. Co-hosted by Electrify Now, Türkiye’s energy minister called for ambitious action to meet the 35 by 35 target.

Starting the panel, Fatih Birol delivered a powerful message. The International Energy Agency (IEA) chief described the disruption to the two major energy arteries — Russia and the Strait of Hormuz — in the last four years. Because of this, electrification is not only a climate ambition, but a response to energy insecurity. “I see for the first time that the energy security policy objectives and the clean energy policy objectives are aligned,” Birol said. “We don’t have to make this choice anymore.” Pledges also matter, he argued, because they send investors and markets an unmissable message.

The Forum also announced the Electrify Now finance coalition, involving the World Bank, Ethiopia, the UK and development banks. The Coalition will run until COP33, with the plan to match investment pipelines with funding. However, apart from reiterating their previous commitment, no country committed to additional finance during the discussion.

The announcement follows business calls to close the electrification implementation gap. We Mean Business Coalition rallied more than 180 companies, including Volvo, Uber, IKEA and Siemens, with combined revenues of $1.69 trillion, behind demands to turn policy commitments into progress.

In another room, a complementary discussion on upskilling for decarbonisation raised the opportunity for growth in jobs and skills as we transition. Ethiopia highlighted renewable electricity and wider grid access as foundations for green industrialisation, while Kenya emphasised green training to tackle unemployment.

LDCs call for urgency

The TAFF and the productive forum on electrification show a good starting point. But we are still yet to see any real financial commitments. In a press statement this morning, the LDC Group leader set out the group’s expectations.

They were keen to show support for the 35 by 35 target, but stated that implementation would require finance, technology and capacity building for the least developed countries.

“For the LDC 1.5 is not just a number. Every fraction poses more risks to our livelihoods.” Small Island states and Indigenous representatives similarly called on Parties to recognise that developing countries feel the brunt of climate change despite not contributing significantly  to global emissions.

In the spirit of Mutirão (collective effort) that has carried forwards from COP30, a global strategy needs to be integrated into climate solutions. Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg warned that “everything and everyone we love is at stake” in a warming world, who is impacted first is down to geography, tipping points, and uneven historical development.

Also of note

On the theme of energy and transportation today, the COP31 Presidency launched the Global Green Freight Corridors Initiative, in alliance with the International Transport Forum, to build greener and more resilient freight corridors.

In a press release following the Electrification Forum, The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) also announced they will support the COP31 Presidency with the Enabling Distribution Grids for Electrification (D-GRIDS) programme to help developing countries identify grid upgrade areas, prepare projects and access finance.

Looking ahead

With finance negotiations continuing throughout the week, the question will be whether leaders’ announcements offer a credible route from promises to delivery. Tomorrow we can expect some key commitments and pledges from participating leaders, with the Leaders Summit hoping to build momentum for the rest of the Conference.

As World Leaders arrive for negotiations, we can also expect high level dialogues on raising finance, the clean energy transition and the second decade of the Paris Agreement.

Climate Action for Associations (CAFA) are virtually attending COP31 in Antalya as official NGO Observers. We are committed to delivering daily insights and an end of COP report to ensure you stay fully informed on the outcomes that matter to membership organisations and their members.

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