Day 4 at COP31: The Leaders Summit concludes as urban resilience tops the agenda

November 12th - in Antalya, Turkiye, COP31 nears the end of its first week.

Day four at COP31 began with the conclusion of the leaders’ summit, with this morning’s national statements presenting different priorities when it comes to climate action and implementation.

Andy Burnham was the first speaker this morning, and he used his speech to announce Dame Madeline Alessandri as the UK’s first special representative for climate security. He said that in his first months of leadership he had seen unprecedented wildfires and heatwaves that reinforce climate as a national security issue. The UK will take on the presidency of the G20 next year, and Burham says he will “put climate resilience back on the agenda”, alongside debt, development and insurance as key issues.

This approach to G20 leadership may answer President Lula’s concerns, as he addressed delegates yesterday saying he was appalled the climate has been slipping of international agendas. Many African and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) representatives also called for addressing debt.

However, the UK has recently approved new ‘Jackdaw’ oil field development in contradiction to emissions reduction targets, which brought criticism today from Friends of the Earth. In parallel, Russia and Venezuela defended their “sovereign” rights over their energy choices and oil industries.

Lebanon offered a different angle, calling for environmental restoration and climate resilience to be integral in all post-war reconstruction. The country is still recovering from Israel’s attack and, along with representatives from Palestine, they said that their country still shows the “environmental scars of war”.

Negotiations Continue

Now that heads of state have come and gone, attention will start to shift to the growing number of agenda items. These negotiations are long, structured sessions where country delegates deliberate at length over the wording of official texts, to agree the principles and ambition of these texts as well as the fine print, and to ensure they are satisfied with what it requires and how it will be interpreted. In a consultation today on updating Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, for example, the EU and Norway requested the deletion of a paragraph 9, which demanded renewed funding from developed countries to the Fund. This may be an indicator that goals to replenish major Climate Funds this year may not be met –  a space to watch as the negotiations carry on.

The Climate Action Tracker

Every year since 2009 the NewClimate Institute and Climate Analytics the Climate Action Tracker to project where national and international commitments land us in terms of CO2 emissions. This year their forecast was “stark”, as global climate action has stalled for the 5^th consecutive year and they identified a worrying trend of governments weakening or rolling back climate policies.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) calculates that national pledges still point to 2.7°C of warming by 2100, unchanged in five years. Even the CAT’s optimistic scenario, where every target and net zero pledge is met in full, reaches only 1.9°C.

Panellists said this lack of progress may turn the Global Stocktake into a hollow exercise. Global Stocktakes are an official global climate progress assessment conducted every five years and is just about to be undertaken again officially on the 18^th November. It is meant to show warming trajectories falling, yet “what we are seeing is quite the opposite,” they said, as governments have failed to improve and deliver on targets, leading to an implementation gap between pledges and actions.

Source: NewClimate Institute

Their analysis found that emissions may have peaked in 2026 (although we will not know for sure until 2030), but scientists remind us that they remain at their highest ever level, and the curve is not bending fast enough.

The rollback of climate policies also received deserved criticism from the panel — so did countries making excessive or inadequate use of carbon credits or over-relying on a speculated scaling of carbon removal to set targets which distract from decarbonisation needed now. When asked a question about the 35 by 35 electrification target, the panellists agreed that is was severely concerning that this goal did not use the term ‘clean’ electricity and pointed to Türkiye and Australia’s vested interest in fossil fuels as “the only explanation”. Electrification only works if it’s low-carbon electrification- coal-powered electricity gets us nowhere in climate terms, and not referring to low-carbon electricity may be more than an oversight.

Bill Hare, founder and CEO of Climate Analytics, said leaders today are faced with a choice: “Do they wish to continue to support fossil fuels” at the cost of “consigning humanity and ecosystems to insurmountable economic damage and irretrievable loss”? As obvious as it may be, countries need to be constantly reminded that engaging in fossil fuel production and use, and protecting people from the worst of climate hazards, are two mutually exclusive options.

Business interests

Today the COP31 Business Forum began, with talks on diversifying trade and a roundtable on Global Energy Security. Many LDC (Least Developed Counties) representatives yesterday called out the focus on the ‘business case’ and reminded leaders from developed economies  that for them it was a matter of survival. “We have the right to have our heads above water” said the Pacific Island Group.

However, the ‘business case’ may be the only way to make progress at this COP, by convincing the leaders with the most influence — or the highest emissions. The International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol has become a prominent face in many discussions over the last few days, demonstrating why the business case could shift the tide in the right direction moving forward.

He called the Middle East conflict the largest energy security threat in history, but said it is pushing countries towards electricity, as the 1973 oil crisis did for nuclear power. Even Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are diversifying oil flow away from the Strait of Hormuz, and other countries must diversify to reduce demand from exporters. “We are now in the age of electricity,” he said. “Two years ago I said we are entering it, but now we are in it.”

He said that in choosing the 35 by 35 target he was aware it wasn’t the most radical action, but the one with the most potential of bringing countries together, even those with fossil fuel interests. It is a positive sign that so many leaders have come to this COP, and we will see how many leaders pledge to this target in the closing days. A strong message on electrification can send business aligned signals to the markets.

Urban resilience and adaptation

Today’s thematic day was ‘Resilient Cities and the Built Environment’, and the main event was a 4-hour high level dialogue of Urban Resilience and Adaptation.

On behalf of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, a representative opened with the message that “climate change is ultimately about people, places and the future of our communities. There is nowhere to see this more than in cities.” She went on to say that local and regional authorities will be on the front line of response to climate action, but more than a response, urban planning is key in mitigating climate change.

The IPCC reinforced the scientific case for integrated solutions. The IPCC vice-chair Diana Ürge-Vorsatz explored how effective urban interventions can tackle several challenges at once: reducing heat and flood risks, limiting cooling demand and pressure on electricity grids, and improving physical and mental health.

She highlighted how $90 trillion will be spent worldwide in urban infrastructure by 2030, and that this can be a huge flow of investment into climate action, if adaption plans integrate solutions which combine planning with resilience and adaptation to climate hazards.  

Speakers then turned to the commitments and finance needed to translate that evidence into action. Bolivia outlined a €4.5bn pledge for more than a million homes, and a plan to increase houses built with toilets. He added that while some may think this is a small amount, for a country like Bolivia this is a huge commitment. Kenya called for “predictable, accessible funding aligned with the new collective quantified goal” on climate finance in their speech.

Somalia offered a straightforward test of whether these efforts deliver. “Success will be measured in lives saved”.

City led initiatives

London mayor and C40 co-lead Sadiq Khan issued a call to action to other city leaders. He said that if every city could develop an early warning system, cities could save billions of $ that would otherwise be lost during heatwaves and disrupted working.

The C40 group brings together city leaders who are dedicated to climate change from around the world. They were very proactive during New York Climate Week earlier in the year, with many US cities setting out early warning systems and climate centred planning projects.

Heatwaves this summer seem to have brought to the front of conversations how the ‘heat-island effect’ must be tackled with warning systems as early as next year.

Looking ahead

Tomorrow will see the continuation of the business forum on finance and trade day. As the first week of COP31 in Antalya comes to a close, we are yet to see many strong, actionable commitments. There is still over a week to go, so we can wait and see whether any pledges and commitments will make the final negotiated text.

Climate Action for Associations (CAFA) are virtually attending COP31 in Antalya as official NGO Observers. We are committed to delivering daily insights and an end of COP report to ensure you stay fully informed on the outcomes that matter to membership organisations and their members.

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