Day 5 at COP31: ‘No peace on a burning planet’ says UN Secretary General in his last address as negotiations continue.

November 13th: Today, as the first week nears the end, negotiations on the ‘cover decision’ picked up. The Presidency’s draft puts electrification at the centre, but several countries won’t accept a single global target.

Cover Decision

At every COP, there is an option to publish a ‘cover decision’, a short overarching text that frames what the summit has achieved. It is not required, and it is not where the technical detail gets settled, but it is often the document leaders and the world’s media look to for the big signal, which is why every word is fought over.

Last night, the COP31 Presidency published their first reflections on the proposed text, a ‘wish-list’ of concrete solutions and pledges which is up for debate in consultations. This year features the 35% electricity by 2035 pledge, and wording to ‘welcome the COP30 roadmap on Transitioning away from Fossil Suels (TAFF)’. However, there is significant pushback against a potential cover decision with some countries questioning whether it should even be made, and disagreements on wording about the inevitable overshoot of 1.5°C and finance responsibilities.

In opposition to much of the text is Saudi Arabia, who said it was a “detrimental, top down” attack and a “flagrant disregard for our sovereignty”. This was mostly in response to the 35 by 35 pledge making the proposed text, and other countries (such as India, Venezuela and Brunei) agreed that no single target should be imposed on every country.

The UK representative also raised concerns with the controversial ‘Article 9’ – which details the financial responsibilities of developed countries – saying that she cannot accept any wording that would suggest further responsibility for develop countries. It was the view of the LDCs that Article 9 deserved a real place on the agenda as funding is the only way to respond to the Paris Agreement 1.5°C degree target.

1.5 overshoot

The overshoot of the 1.5°C limit (which countries hope to limit and bring back to under 1.5°C), has been the backdrop of this COP after the UN Environment Programme published its report on the matter earlier this year. The Presidency’s draft cover decision talks about acting in the context of overshoot[MJ4] , with the target for limiting overshoot to as little warming and as short a duration as possible. The UN Secretary General reminded us that “Any overshoot will intensify the devastating impacts we are already seeing.”

New research today from the Stockholm Resilience Centre concludes that the cryosphere, the planet’s frozen systems, may have already breached their “safe operating space” at 1.5 degrees. Land ice, sea ice, permafrost and snow cover are moving away from the stable conditions of the past 10,000 years, and the decline is accelerating, partly irreversible and amplified by feedback loops as the planet warms. The longer the world stays above 1.5°C, the more these tipping points can spiral out of control. That is why many countries were calling for a clear acknowledgment of this, to make sure all agendas going forward reflect the need to limit overshoot. For a more detailed breakdown of the gravity of the situation, watch Prof. Hugh Montgomery’s emergency briefing to CAFA members here.

Implementation

Today also featured two key events on Implementation, which has been the key focus of the Presidency, who called this Summit the ‘Implementation COP’.

1)       Global Implementation Accelerator

The Global Implementation Accelerator (GIA) was officially presented this morning by COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago. Launched at COP30 as a voluntary initiative, each year it selects two solutions from the Action Agenda’s ‘Plans to Accelerate Solutions’ list, that could reach a positive tipping point within around three to five years. That is the point where new initiatives become widespread as costs fall and infrastructure improves, making wider adoption easier – for example solar energy or EV could be said to have passed a positive tipping point. Do Lago called the programme “A chain of actions for a positive chain reaction” and said he was very excited to launch this officially after developing this since COP30.

The two yearly programmes, selected by independent experts, will receive roughly two years of backing from partners, who can offer finance, technical support or political visibility. The first selection is expected in the first half of 2027 and today at the launch it received public backing from the Green Climate Fund and the Finance Ministers for Climate group.

Figure 1: Showing how the two projects will work in tandem. Source: UNFCCC

2)       BRIDGE

Today Türkiye also officially launched the Climate Implementation Bridge. Led by the Turkish Presidency with UNDP support, and in collaboration with Australia, it aims to help countries move from climate priorities to investment-ready projects by strengthening preparation, institutional capacity and access to finance. It is not a new fund but instead it connects priority projects with development banks, climate funds and private investors. Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Pakistan and Uzbekistan are the first pilot countries to work with the UNDP through their ‘Climate Promise’. Pakistan has already developed 35 projects in collaboration with the UNDP and is seeking $26 billion in investment during this COP.

Simon Stiel of the UN addressed investors saying climate investment saves lives and livelihoods, but it also leads to job creation and more resilient economies. The UNDP wants to show that climate action is investable, and investment-ready.

Speakers in both events were sure to mention how programmes need to be complementary, not complicate the climate landscape. There has been clear consideration from the UNFCCC about these complementary programmes and now we hope that financing partners will deliver on their support.

Also today

UN Secretary-General António Guterres used his final COP to warn that “you cannot build peace on a burning planet.” As he steps down from his post at the end of the year, Guterres told civil society and indigenous representatives that he will “never, ever give up”. As we look forward to next week, he urged countries to coordinate, to seriously plan to move away from fossil fuels and to confront the disproportionate influence of the fossil fuel lobby: this may have been in reference to Saudi Arabia aiming to delay the release of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s seventh report (AR7) from 2027 to 2029 (or after the Second Global Stocktake) and has been pushing back on major targets. The UN secretary General praised the IPCC and he stressed that he hopes the report “can be produced as quickly as possible”. He added: “by that I mean before the second Global Stocktake”, which needs to be informed by the latest science in the form of IPCC AR7 rather than AR6, already out of date.

He also urged leaders to sign the 35 by 35 pledge, adding that this target should be ‘clean’ (renewable)  electrification, and to commit to finance next week.

“Face the facts, follow the science, choose the future, never give up”, he ended.

Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, also gave a conference to round up his week in Antalya. He has been heavily involved with the COP31 Presidency and helped set the 35 by 35 target.

He has been clear on his support for clean electrification in discussions, noting that 80% of new energy plants are renewable. However he was conscious to avoid stating  that the pledge should include ‘clean’ electrification. He said he was certain that any electrification would cut emissions, and that the priority is for as many countries as possible to sign. With a strongly backed pledge, it would “give an unmistakeable signal to investors and banks that electrification is the future”. This may lead to a positive tipping point in itself.

While he said he had “no reason not to be optimistic”, we will wait to see whether the 35 by 35 pledge makes the cover agreement.

Looking ahead

COP31 continues tomorrow for a final day this week, focused around the thematic day ‘Youth and Education’. We will hear from youth action representative and talks will focus on the goal of climate education. Next week the talks move to the political level: ministers arrive for the final negotiations, a second draft of the cover decision is expected and we will wait to see which pledge promises lead to action.

Climate Action for Associations (CAFA) are virtually attending COP31 in Antalya as official NGO Observers. We are committed to delivering daily insights and an end of COP report to ensure you stay fully informed on the outcomes that matter to membership organisations and their members.

You can find daily updates here.

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